The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association fell slightly, in July, by 0.2 points, to 52 points, and almost half of the association’s analysts (47%) anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate in the next 12 months, up to 4.43%.
„The main risk to the financial stability of Romania is the fiscal policy. The budget deficit is anticipated by the survey participants at a value of over 7% of GDP this year. This deficit is also associated with a slight reduction in economic growth expectations for this year,” said Adrian Codirlasu, deputy chair of the CFA Romania Association, in a press release sent to AGERPRES on Monday.
According to the cited source, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (July 2025) decreased compared to the previous exercise and stood at an average value of 4.43%. At the same time, approximately 47% of the participants anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate in the next 12 months, and 41% anticipate a stability of this indicator.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 82% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON in the next 12 months, and the rest a stagnation.
Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0258 RON for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.1062 RON for one euro.
The state budget deficit forecast for 2024 continued to increase and is anticipated (the average value of the expectations) at 7.1% of GDP, and the economic growth expectations for the current year continued to decrease compared to previous exercises and are at the value of 2.5%.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 54% in the next 12 months.
Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, most of the participants, 59%, anticipate stagnation in the next 12 months, while 29% anticipate a decrease. Also, 41% of the participants consider that the current prices are correctly assessed, and 59% that they are overestimated.
The survey has been carried out monthly by the CFA Romania Association for over 13 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization wants to quantify the anticipations of financial analysts regarding the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The CFA Romania Association is the organization of investment professionals from Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA).
AGERPRES
