The 15% customs duty on European exports only has a limited direct impact on Romania, given that its exports to the U.S. represent less than 3% of total exports, the indirect transmission channel being more important in this case, argues Iulian Lolea, macroeconomist at the Concordia Employers’ Confederation.

Referring to the tariffs in the recently concluded trade agreement between the EU and the U.S., which provides for 15% tariffs on the goods exported by EU member states to the U.S. (except for aluminum and steel, for which there is a 50% charge), the expert said that these duties have a limited direct impact on Romania, which instead exports massively to Germany, France etc. „When these countries are affected by American taxes and reduce their economic activity, they buy less from Romania,” Lolea told AGERPRES.

He went on to say that there are sectors in Romania that will directly take the brunt, especially those that produce electrical components and equipment, automotive engines and parts, steel and iron articles, the furniture and wood products industry, but also rubber products and derivatives – all of which represent over 60% of Romania’s exports to the U.S.

According to the expert, the new agreement „is better than the figures circulated in President Trump’s previous presidential decrees”, which means that „the European sectors connected to the U.S. market, including the automotive industry Romania is strongly linked to as a supplier, will suffer less.”

However, European goods are becoming increasingly uncompetitive for the U.S. market, with two important factors currently driving their relative price up: customs duties (15% or 50%) and the appreciation of the euro against the dollar (over 10% since the beginning of the year), the economist believes.

„Consequently, economic growth in the euro area will be affected, with estimates from international institutions showing a possible reduction in the economic growth rate by 0.3 – 0.4%, which would mean a slowdown by 0.15% – 0.2% in Romania’s economic growth. Even with lower customs duties, they will generate distortions in trade flows and may cause problems for many European exporters. The future dynamics of trade relations remains of interest, being faced with multiple challenges,” explained the Concordia representative.

Following the meeting held on Sunday in Scotland between President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and U.S. President Donald Trump, the United States and the European Union agreed on a framework trade agreement, Reuters, AFP and EFE report. A consensus was thus reached that will prevent a trade war between the EU and the U.S. starting on August 1, the date from which Trump previously threatened that the United States would apply 30% customs duties on imports from the EU.

AGERPRES