The Index for Loans Granted to Consumers (IRCC) will register a higher daily level than the Romanian Interbank Offer Rate (ROBOR) starting from the end of Q2 – the beginning of Q3, Coface Romania Services Director Iancu Guda argues, according to Agerpres.

„Now it is 5.7pct [IRCC]. We already know, it will be 6.04pct in the next quarter. It will probably continue to grow, being a gap of 6 months. It is calculated quarterly, but I am referring to the daily value, not the rate calculated quarterly. End of quarter 2 – beginning of quarter 3 will be the moment when IRCC will be above ROBOR,” Iancu Guda told a press conference.

In his opinion, ROBOR will further decrease, and in these conditions the economist estimates that IRCC will reach to 6.5pct, and ROBOR to 6pct.

„If inflation follows the downward trend anticipated in the Central Bank’s basic scenario, we should see a ROBOR of 6pct by the end of the year at the most,” Iancu Guda stated.

Asked if the ROBOR level will be below the monetary policy interest rate, he responded affirmatively, noting that the market sees the key rate as being in the 7pct – 7.5pct corridor.

„Perhaps some wonder why when inflation increased the interest rate grew and when inflation decreases the interest rate remains there. Because it is still below inflation. Namely, by the end of the year we will see an inflation of 10pct, a monetary policy interest rate of 7pct, 7.25pct, if they take it to a maximum of 7.5pct – no one anticipates a higher level -, however, for an inflation that is 16pct and going towards 10pct, it is necessary. Thus, in order to decrease the monetary policy interest rate below this threshold, 7pct, when inflation still remains in double digits, above 10pct, is premature,” Guda argued.

Agerpres