Data from the first part of 2026 offer the first signs of the rebalancing process, as the economic contraction has eased, investment financed from EU funds has accelerated, the contribution of net exports has improved, the external deficit is narrowing, and inflation has returned to a downward trajectory, interim Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare has announced.

The latest data published today by the National Institute of Statistics indicate an improvement in Romania’s economic performance in the second quarter of 2026, against a backdrop of fiscal consolidation and the continued correction of the macroeconomic imbalances accumulated in previous years.

In the second quarter of 2026, the annual contraction in real GDP narrowed significantly, to -0.4%, while the economy remained practically stable compared with the previous quarter. The performance of monthly indicators also points to signs of improving economic activity in several sectors. Construction continued to perform favourably, supported in part by the implementation of infrastructure projects.

Beyond the short-term performance of GDP, the structure of economic activity offers important signals regarding the rebalancing of the economic growth model. After a period in which economic expansion relied significantly on consumption and was accompanied by high fiscal and external deficits, investment continues to play an important role in supporting economic activity.

At the same time, the contribution of net exports to economic growth became positive starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, amid more moderate import growth alongside an increase in exports. This change is a positive signal for the process of rebalancing the economy, by reducing the pressure exerted by domestic demand on imports and, consequently, on the external imbalance.

“Data from the first part of 2026 offer the first signs of this rebalancing process: the economic contraction has eased, investment financed from EU funds has accelerated, the contribution of net exports has improved, the external deficit is narrowing, and inflation has returned to a downward trajectory.
The Ministry of Finance will continue to support a fiscal framework that allows imbalances to be corrected, while protecting investment and projects that contribute to increasing Romania’s economic potential.”, said Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare.

Investment, the main driver of economic activity during the adjustment period

During the current adjustment period, investment remains one of the main factors supporting economic activity and the element that can ensure the transition from stabilisation to a resumption of growth.

The investment cycle is visible both in the strong performance of construction and in the acceleration of investment financed from EU funds. In the first half of 2026, investment financed from EU funds increased from 27.2 billion lei to 42.5 billion lei, representing a 56% increase.

However, the effects of this investment effort extend beyond its immediate contribution to economic activity. Investment in transport and energy infrastructure contributes, over the medium and long term, to increasing the economy’s productive potential by reducing logistics costs, improving connectivity, and enhancing energy security and availability.

More efficient infrastructure creates better conditions for expanding domestic production capacity, attracting private investment and integrating Romanian companies more closely into European production and distribution chains.

Therefore, investment made during this period not only supports economic activity in the short term, but also contributes to increasing the economy’s capacity to generate added value and sustainable growth in the years ahead.

The external imbalance continues to adjust

At the same time, the process of adjusting the external imbalance is continuing. In the first five months of 2026, the current-account deficit narrowed by 5.4% compared with the corresponding period in 2025. Over the same period, the trade deficit in goods decreased by 3.9%, as exports rose by 2.3% while imports recorded only a marginal increase.

This development reflects a gradual improvement in the ratio between exports and imports and contributes to reducing pressure on the current account.

However, the Ministry of Finance is also analysing this adjustment in the context of the strong investment cycle. Some investment entails imports of equipment, technology and other capital goods, which may slow the pace of correction of the external deficit in the short term. Over the medium term, however, the expansion and modernisation of productive capacity may contribute to increased competitiveness, the substitution of some imports and the strengthening of the economy’s export capacity.

Inflation is beginning to fall as pressure on the economy eases

Recent inflation trends also indicate that the disinflationary process is resuming.

Recent price developments indicate that the disinflationary process is resuming. The annual inflation rate fell from 10.42% in June to 8.2% in July, returning below the 10% threshold. This is a favourable signal, but inflation remains high and continues to require a prudent macroeconomic policy stance. The disinflationary process is expected to accelerate from August, as the base effects associated with the fiscal measures adopted last year fade.

Moderating consumption and wage growth are also contributing to easing inflationary pressures. At the same time, persistent geopolitical tensions and volatility in international energy prices remain risk factors for this trajectory and call for caution when assessing the outlook.

A gradual reduction in inflation is important not only for macroeconomic stability, but also for the prospects of economic growth. As inflation falls, the gradual recovery of real incomes will create the conditions for a gradual recovery in consumption.

An economy gradually changing its growth model

The picture emerging is therefore one of the gradual rebalancing of the Romanian economy.

Fiscal consolidation and moderating consumption are contributing to the correction of imbalances accumulated in previous years, while investment – particularly investment supported by EU funds – is enabling the continued development of infrastructure and the expansion of the economy’s productive capacity.

What is at stake during this adjustment period is a shift towards a more sustainable growth model, based to a greater extent on investment, productivity and external competitiveness, and to a lesser extent on the expansion of consumption fuelled by the accumulation of fiscal and external imbalances.

The aim of fiscal consolidation is not merely to reduce the deficit, but to create the conditions for healthier and more resilient economic growth. Productive investment, infrastructure, the absorption of EU funds, increased competitiveness and strengthened export capacity are the elements that can support this transition.

Data from the first part of 2026 offer the first signs of this rebalancing process: the economic contraction has eased, investment financed from EU funds has accelerated, the contribution of net exports has improved, the external deficit is narrowing, and inflation has returned to a downward trajectory.

The Ministry of Finance will continue to support a fiscal framework that allows imbalances to be corrected, while protecting investment and projects that contribute to increasing Romania’s economic potential.

“Sustainable economic growth cannot be built on stimulating consumption through ever larger public deficits, but on investment, productivity, competitiveness and a stable fiscal framework capable of supporting development without the accumulation of new imbalances,” Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare stressed.