The Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) revised downwards the inflation forecast for the end of 2023, from 8.7pct to 8pct, due to the anticipation of cheaper agricultural raw materials and energy, Agerpres informs.

„We are revising downwards our inflation forecast for the end of 2023 to 8.0pct in annual terms, from 8.7pct, due to the anticipation of cheaper agricultural raw materials and energy. Inflationary pressures will moderate after the first quarter of 2023 due to a favorable basic statistical effect from the energy price component. We expect the BNR [National Bank of Romania] to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 7.00pct in 2023. Risks related to the future trajectory of inflation remain up, as current inflationary pressures are manifested across a wide range of the consumer basket, with certain categories being expected to persist for a longer period,” a bank’s report shows.

According to the document, the banking system registered a liquidity surplus compared to the BNR of 21.3 billion RON (average daily stock) in January 2023, double against the previous month when a surplus of 10.9 billion RON was recorded. The banks used the deposit facility of the BNR, in the amount of 21.3 billion RON (average daily stock).

The report states that the BNR did not buy government securities in RON in January 2023. This liquidity surplus is the consequence of the very large payments made by the Ministry of Finance in December when the budget deficit increased by 22.3 billion RON in a single month, the BCR document says.

The special report regarding the inflation developments was drafted by the Research Department, coordinated by Ciprian Dascalu – chief economist with the BCR.

Agerpres