The Republic of Moldova recorded investment growth of more than 20% in 2025, the highest rate in the country’s history, driven by rising confidence in the economy and strong performance in the banking sector following the country’s accession to the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), National Bank of Moldova Governor Anca Dragu said in an interview with AGERPRES.

She noted that the ratio of credit to gross domestic product also rose sharply, reaching around 30% of GDP last year.

The governor of the National Bank of Moldova also referred to a new programme the International Monetary Fund is set to launch in the Republic of Moldova for the first time. The initiative will not involve financial assistance but will instead focus on safeguarding economic stability and supporting reforms.

In the interview, Anca Dragu also offered a forecast for inflation in 2026, saying it will remain below 5%, while economic growth is estimated at around 4%.

AGERPRES: Madam Governor, on 6 March it will be one year since the Republic of Moldova joined the Single Euro Payments Area. What advantages has this brought to citizens and the Moldovan economy?

Anca Dragu: We mark one year since Moldova joined SEPA, although payments actually started being processed through the system in October. Why is this clarification important? Because the savings we can measure so far refer to the period between October and the end of February. The system has made payments faster, safer and significantly cheaper compared with the traditional euro payment system used previously for transfers to the European Union and within the SEPA area. Fees have fallen by around 94%, from an average of more than 20 euros to about 1.3 euros. You know, previously, fees varied widely and could even reach 200 euros for larger transfers. For businesses, payments can now reach the European Union within the same day and return just as quickly and cheaply. For individuals it also means much lower fees. This is particularly important given Moldova’s large diaspora sending money home, as well as families supporting students abroad. Both individuals and companies have made significant savings, amounting to more than five million euros in the five months since SEPA payments began.

AGERPRES: In other words, this represents an unprecedented reform in this sector for Moldova.

Anca Dragu: Exactly, this is a deep reform. From the beginning, while working on this file, we viewed it as a structural reform for the economy. We understood its potential impact on the business environment, on citizens and on economic growth, but also on the country’s image and positioning in international relations. When you say „Yes, you can transfer money to the Republic of Moldova because we are a SEPA member”, an external partner knows that to become a SEPA member we had to be evaluated by the European Commission and the European Payments Council in two very important areas. One concerns payment systems – in other words, everything related to payments in the Republic of Moldova, including legislation and institutions, which are fully aligned with the European framework – and the other is the prevention and combating of money laundering. In this latter area, which is particularly complex, accession to SEPA effectively means that the European Union acknowledges that the Republic of Moldova’s legislation, institutions and practices comply with European standards. That is why I say the implications are wide ranging and are felt throughout the economy, not only in the savings made by individual citizens.

AGERPRES: In practice, the European payments system has adopted you and you may be the first Moldovan institution fully integrated into Europe.

Anca Dragu: That is a nice way of putting it. We are ambitious and we have good reasons to be proud of our team at the National Bank and the results we have achieved. At the same time, we have begun a broader assessment of the banking legislation. This is known as legislative equivalence, and it is conducted by the European Banking Authority, the main regulatory authority for the banking sector in the EU. The evaluation began a year ago with support from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and PricewaterhouseCoopers. The first stage has already been completed successfully and we hope to finalise the process by mid year or early autumn.

AGERPRES: What are the initial findings?

Anca Dragu: Very encouraging. The first evaluation passed successfully. At the end of this process we will effectively receive confirmation from the European Union that the Republic of Moldova’s banking sector meets EU standards. This has image implications but also makes investment decisions easier. This means that any bank from the European Union will be able to invest in the Republic of Moldova’s banking sector without being required under EU regulations – particularly those of the European Central Bank (ECB) – to set aside additional provisions or comply with extra requirements. As you know, when European banks invest outside the EU they are normally subject to additional regulatory conditions. Once we complete this evaluation process with the European Banking Authority (EBA), Moldova’s banking sector will be considered fully aligned with European rules. As a result, investments will be treated accordingly: a bank from an EU member state will be able to invest in a Moldovan bank under the same conditions as it would in any bank within the European Union.

AGERPRES: Earlier you mentioned Moldovan citizens sending money home from abroad. What would you say to those who might still be hesitant to transfer money to accounts in the Republic of Moldova?

Anca Dragu: We believe that hesitation has largely diminished. In fact, transfers have increased by around 30% during the first five months of SEPA payments. This suggests that money previously sent through less formal channels is now entering the banking system, because people no longer have to pay fees of 20, 30 or even 50 euros. Previously, sending 200 euros could involve paying as much as 30 euros in fees. It was a lot. I do not think people are reluctant. Some may simply not yet be aware of the new system, which is why we encourage banks to promote SEPA transfers. For anyone still uncertain, the assessments by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission show clearly that the banking sector of the Republic of Moldova is solid, resilient and aligned with the highest international standards.

AGERPRES: This also applies to foreign investors, of course.

Anca Dragu: Absolutely. We see this in the numbers. Investments are rising, both foreign and domestic. For example, last year in the financial sector we saw one of the largest European insurance players, an Austrian company, strengthen its presence in the Republic of Moldova with an acquisition worth more than nine million euros. We see investments growing in other sectors as well, despite the geopolitical context. For 2025 we expect investment growth of about 20%, which is very significant. In the coming years we forecast double digit investment growth as well. That reflects confidence from both domestic and foreign investors.

AGERPRES: Could this also indicate a shift from the grey economy to the formal economy?

Anca Dragu: These are clearly identifiable, measurable investments. Foreign investments include both greenfield projects and acquisitions of existing companies. These are visible in statistics. As for domestic investment, I believe the broader macroeconomic environment has stimulated investment. We also see strong growth in credit to the economy. Three years ago credit accounted for about 23% of GDP, placing us near the bottom of regional rankings. Now it is close to 30%, which is a spectacular increase and the largest in the region. Both individuals and companies contributed to this growth, which reflects confidence in the economy.

AGERPRES: Are investors still concerned about the war in neighbouring Ukraine? Perhaps that is why they are investing less, and I am thinking in particular of Romanian investors.

Anca Dragu: Romanian investors are among the leading investors in the Republic of Moldova, although I would personally like to see even more investment coming from Romania. Companies based in Romania or European companies that have invested in Romania could easily expand across the Prut River. Foreign investment is performing well and has grown. The year 2022 was very difficult, with an economic contraction of about 4% to 6%. However, by 2025 we expect economic growth of almost 3%. The shock of 2022 has passed. At the beginning of 2025 we experienced another shock due to electricity price increases, but the figures have stabilised and the growth trend has resumed. Inflation is declining and the macroeconomic framework is improving, which supports sustained investment. We are certainly on the border of a war. You know very well what this war looks like, but through our monetary, economic and fiscal policies we have managed to send very positive signals to investors.

AGERPRES: Even so, aren’t the Moldovan authorities and the National Bank of Moldova having to respond to the hybrid war threatening the country and take protective measures for the banking and economic systems?

Anca Dragu: Payment systems fall under the responsibility of the National Bank and we work closely with other institutions in the country responsible for security, cyber security and anti money laundering. Through this cooperation we have managed to reduce unwanted capital flows and hybrid threats almost to zero. As you know, the Republic of Moldova has achieved significant success in addressing these challenges.

AGERPRES: The International Monetary Fund is expected to launch a new programme in the Republic of Moldova. What can you tell us about it?

Anca Dragu: First of all, it will be the first time the Republic of Moldova has an IMF programme without financing. In other words, it is a softer type of programme. It will involve periodic assessments, but no financial assistance, because the country is currently managing well from a financing perspective. We have domestic financing and European funding, but it is important to continue implementing reforms and good practices in various areas. That is why we want to maintain cooperation with the International Monetary Fund through a precautionary programme. It is essentially a protection instrument designed to support reforms.

We will soon begin detailed discussions with the IMF. As far as the National Bank is concerned, we will include a series of measures and reforms in the banking sector. A year ago we carried out a comprehensive evaluation with the IMF under the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). That assessment identified several areas where improvements are needed, particularly in supervision and in the prevention and combating of money laundering. These are highly dynamic fields and they always require continued investment and improvement.

The financial sector will therefore focus on further consolidation, while additional measures will also be taken at the government level to ensure the effective implementation of the Republic of Moldova’s growth plan. The growth plan agreed with the European Union is similar to the recovery and resilience plans adopted by EU member states. It is a programme with substantial funding – about 1.9 billion euros, which represents more than 10% of the country’s GDP for 2025, for example. Through cooperation with the IMF we aim to ensure that this growth plan with the EU is implemented as effectively as possible.

AGERPRES: You have set quite an ambitious inflation target for 2026. Where do you expect inflation to stand?

Anca Dragu: We operate an inflation-targeting regime and I am proud to say that inflation remains within the target corridor most of the time. At the beginning of 2025 we experienced a temporary imbalance caused by a sharp increase in electricity prices – around 75% – as well as higher gas prices. However, inflation has since returned to the target range. The target is 5%, with a corridor of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. For 2026 we expect average inflation to remain below 5%, probably around 4.6-4.7%. Of course, external factors that we cannot control may influence the outcome, but our forecast remains below 5%.

AGERPRES: If you were to offer a forecast for the Republic of Moldova’s economy in 2026, how would you describe it?

Anca Dragu: For 2026 we expect economic growth to remain around 3%, while projections up to 2030 indicate growth of over 3%, close to 4%, which is the economy’s current potential. I see robust economic growth, increasing investor interest in the Republic of Moldova thanks to our clear European trajectory, and rising levels of both investment and consumption. The banking sector is also very strong and will play an increasingly active role in the real economy, which is ultimately its purpose: to safely intermediate a country’s financial resources.

Instant payments, known as MIA, have also been a real success. We started implementing the person-to-person component two years ago, and since then we have expanded it with additional components. We now have MIA services for individuals, businesses and government payments. From Monday, businesses can also use MIA. What does an instant payment mean? It means that money can be transferred in up to five seconds, at very low cost and sometimes even free of charge for individuals.

The government payments component is particularly useful. Around 120 public institutions in the Republic of Moldova can now receive payments through the instant payment system. For example, if someone needs to pay taxes, the payment reaches the treasury within five seconds. That means that even if the payment is made on the last day of the deadline, it arrives instantly and avoids delays or penalties that previously occurred when transfers took several days to process. It is a very useful feature for both individuals and companies.

If we look at the Western Balkans, which we often compare ourselves with, many countries are only now working on developing instant payment systems. Within the region we are among the most advanced. The next step is to connect our instant payment system with those of other countries. The European Union already has such a system, and the goal is for instant payments to work across borders as well. In this way we have managed to connect the country – its citizens and businesses – through MIA for domestic payments and SEPA for international payments, offering fast, secure and affordable transactions.

AGERPRES