The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has slightly revised downward its estimates regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2025, but maintained its forecasts for 2026, according to the „Regional Economic Prospects” report, published on Tuesday by the international financial institution.
According to the latest EBRD forecasts, Romania’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% this year, 0.2 percentage points less than the 1.8% estimate advanced in February, and an advance of 2.4% in 2026.
„Romanian economic growth slowed significantly to 0.8% in 2024. Private consumption registered a solid advance, following the increase in real wages by 8%, which led to a deepening of the trade deficit. Consumption shows signs of moderation at the beginning of 2025. Investments decreased significantly, especially in the last quarter, following the slowdown in the absorption of European funds. Regarding supply, the slowdown was broad-based, with industry, services and construction registering considerable declines, while agriculture was severely affected by the drought,” the report says.
The international financial institution draws attention to the fact that „the fiscal situation remains difficult, and the planned fiscal consolidation this year will likely require additional measures, due to the worse-than-expected development in 2024. Despite a slight moderation, inflation remains high, close to 5%, requiring a tightening of monetary policy by the BNR.”
According to the EBRD, the Romanian economy has limited exposure to the US economy, but has a considerable level of integration into global automotive supply chains, which represents a vulnerability.
„Against the backdrop of reduced consumption and the difficult fiscal situation, forecasts regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2025 have been revised downwards to 1.6%. In 2026, the growth rate will return close to potential, to 2.4%, assuming that there will be an acceleration in the absorption of European funds,” the report states.
The EBRD is a major institutional investor in Romania, and to date the organization has invested almost EUR 11.5 billion in 550 projects. A significant share of its financing supports private sector development, sustainability and innovation.
AGERPRES
