The European Commission (EC) improved the estimates regarding Romania’s economic growth this year, from 3.9pct, as it anticipated in July, to 5.8pct, according to the Autumn 2022 Economic Forecast which was published on Friday, according to Agerpres.

After a strong 2022, Romania’s economy is set to slow down with real GDP growth at around 2pct in the coming years due higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and the fallout from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Therefore, the European Commission foresees an increase of Romania’s economy from 1.8pct in 2023 and 2.2pct in 2024.

Inflation is expected to peak at the end of 2022, remaining still high in 2023, before declining in 2024. Overall, HICP is set to reach 11.8pct in 2022, 10.2pct in 2023, before falling to 6.8pct in 2024, according to the EC estimates.

The unemployment rate will stand around 5-6pct. According to the 2022 Autumn Forecast, the unemployment rate will reach 5.4pct in 2022, 5.8pct in 2023 and 5.4pct in 2024.

In 2024, the deficit is forecast to decrease to 4.8pct of GDP, following solid revenues and the decline of current expenditures as a percentage of GDP, mainly due to the high growth of nominal GDP. The deficit is forecast to decrease to 6.5pct of GDP in 2022, 5pct of GDP in 2023 and 4.8pct of GDP in 2024.

The general government debt is projected to decrease to 47.9pct of GDP in 2022, 47.3pct in 2023, before increasing to 47.6pct in 2024.

The European Commission publishes every year two sets of detailed forecasts (in spring and autumn) and two sets of intermediate forecasts (in winter and summer). The interim forecasts include the annual and quarterly GDP and inflation values of all member states for the current year and for the next year, as well as aggregated data for the EU and the Euro zone.

Agerpres