The National Bank of Romania is organizing a press conference on Monday, supported by Governor Mugur Isarescu, for the presentation of the Quarterly Report on Inflation.

According to a press release from the central bank, the BNR Board of Directors analyzed and approved the Inflation Report, November 2024 edition, a document incorporating the latest data and information available.

According to the updated forecast, the annual inflation rate will increase slightly in the last months of the current year and will experience a pronounced fluctuation in the first semester of 2025, remaining above the target range and above the previously anticipated values, against the background of the two-way basic effects that will manifest on the short time horizon, but also of the severe drought in 2024 and the increase in the quotations of some goods, of a nature to further affect the dynamics of food and energy prices. At the same time, the annual inflation rate will subsequently resume its decline on a higher trajectory than the one in the previous projection, falling below the upper limit of the target interval only at the beginning of 2026 and remaining in its vicinity until the end of the forecast horizon.

BNR notes that the decrease will continue to be driven by basic disinflationary effects, which will be joined by the influences expected to come from the deceleration of the increase in import prices, as well as from the downward adjustment of short-term inflationary expectations – on a higher trajectory than in the projection previous – but also from the faster restriction of aggregate demand surplus, compared to previous forecasts.

AGERPRES