International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Thursday that the financial institution expects requests for IMF financial support to rise by $20 billion to $50 billion in the short term as a result of the war in the Middle East, Reuters reports.

In a speech delivered ahead of next week’s IMF and World Bank meetings, Georgieva said the war has prompted the Fund to lower its global growth forecasts.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday, but Israel’s ongoing bombardment of Lebanon threatens to derail talks aimed at establishing a lasting peace.

"Even in the best-case scenario, there will be no clear-cut return to the previous status quo," Georgieva said. For example, the Ras Laffan complex in Qatar, which produces 93% of all liquefied natural gas in the Gulf, has been shut down since March 2 and could take between three and five years to return to full capacity.

"The truth is that we don’t really know what the future holds for transit through the Strait of Hormuz or for the recovery of regional air traffic. What we do know is that growth will be slower—even if the new peace is sustainable," said the IMF director.

The conflict, which began on February 28, will have spillover effects for some time, Georgieva added, including the closure of oil refineries and shortages of refined products that are disrupting transportation, tourism, and trade.

The IMF will publish a set of scenarios next week in its World Economic Outlook report, ranging from a relatively rapid normalization to a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain much higher for much longer, Georgieva said. She added that even the most promising scenario implies a slowdown in growth due to damage to infrastructure, supply disruptions, loss of confidence, and other negative effects.

In January, the IMF projected that the global economy would grow by 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

Next week’s meetings, which will be attended by thousands of financial officials from around the world, will focus on ways to overcome the shock of the war and how the IMF can help member countries in need, Georgieva said. She said the IMF has sufficient resources and can increase balance-of-payments support through existing programs, and that she expects other countries to request assistance. Georgieva did not identify any specific country that has requested help.

She also said that the energy supply shock has already boosted short-term inflation expectations, although long-term expectations have not changed. According to the IMF director, central banks should “act decisively with interest rate hikes” if inflation expectations threaten to run away and trigger an inflationary spiral.

The IMF director warned that a demand adjustment is inevitable, but cautioned countries against adopting export controls, price controls, and other measures that could further disrupt global conditions. "I call on all countries to reject unilateral actions. Don’t pour gasoline on the fire," Georgieva said.

She noted that many countries are taking conservation measures, including limits on private vehicle use and remote work. Most countries have avoided untargeted tax cuts or energy subsidies, and the IMF is actively working with countries to ensure that any measures remain temporary.

AGERPRES