In the first round of the presidential elections, 69% of Romanians would turn out to vote, with Mircea Geoana and Marcel Ciolacu topping the voting intentions at over 20%, reveals a poll conducted by INSCOP Research released on Thursday.
As far as the likelihood of voting in the presidential election is concerned on a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means „definitely not” vote to10 „definitely yes,” 69% of the respondents chose „I will definitely do.”
When asked about the candidate they would vote for if the first round of the presidential election were held on Sunday, the respondents, regardless of whether they say they will turn out to vote or not, opted for Mircea Geoana (independent) – 21.4%; Marcel Ciolacu Social Democratic Party (PSD) – 20.3%; Elena Lasconi, Save Romania Union (USR) – 14.2%; Diana Sosoaca (SOS Romania) – 13.6%; George Simion, Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) – 12%; Nicolae Ciuca, National Liberal Party (PNL) – 7.1%; Cristian Diaconescu (independent) – 4.7%; Kelemen Hunor, Hungarian Democratic Union of Romania (UDMR) – 3.7%; Cristian Terhes, Romanian National Conservative Party – 1.9%, and Ana Birchall (independent) would get 0.7%. Only 0.4% say they would vote for another candidate.
Among those who picked an option for candidate and said they would show up to vote, 20.8% of voters would vote for Mircea Geoana (independent); 20.5% for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD); 16% would choose Elena Lasconi (USR); 12.5% – Diana Sosoaca (SOS Romania); George Simion (AUR) would get 12.4%; Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) – 5.6%; Cristian Diaconescu (independent) – 4.5%; Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) – 3.6%; Cristian Terhes, Romanian National Conservative Party – 2%; Ana Birchall (independent) – 0.9%, another candidate – 1.2%.
„The large number of candidates measured before the completion of the procedures for collecting signatures and the final validation of competitors leads to a large fragmentation of voting intentions, and the presence of independent candidates generates a new situation for Romania’s recent democracy in which candidates garnering less that 25% of the vote in the first round would advance to the runoff,” says INSCOP Research Director Remus Tefureac.
According to him, in the estimates for the second round „candidates who are not limited to a certain electoral pool, but attract votes from several areas such as Mircea Geoana have a significantly higher voting intention in all the scenarios in which they participate.”
In Mircea Geoana’s absence, Marcel Ciolacu would rank first, but with closer scores. The two candidates of the right, Nicolae Ciuca and Elena Lasconi, would be practically tied in the second round, according to Tefureac.
The poll shows that in a Marcel Ciolacu vs. Mircea Geoana runoff scenario, 47.8% of the voters would pick the former NATO deputy secretary general, and 34.2% the current PSD national leader, 1.8% would be undecided, 13.9% would not vote, and 2.2% did not know or did not answer. Among the respondents who chose a candidate, 58.3% would vote for Mircea Geoana, and 41.7% for Marcel Ciolacu.
In the Nicolae Ciuca vs. Elena Lasconi scenario, 37% of respondents would pick the PNL leader and 36.7% the USR leader; 1% would be undecided; 22.3% would not vote, and 3% did not know or did not answer. Among the respondents who chose a candidate, 50.2% would vote for Ciuca, and 49.8% for Lasconi.
In the Mircea Geoana vs. Nicolae Ciuca runoff scenario, 50.1% of Romanians would vote for Geoana and 27.9% for the PNL national leader; 1.3% would be undecided, 18.4% would not vote, and 2.2% did not know or did not answer. Among the respondents who chose a candidate, 64.2% would vote for Mircea Geoana and 35.8% for Ciuca.
If Marcel Ciolacu and Elena Lasconi were to make it to the second round of the presidential election, 43.5% of Romanians would vote for the PSD leader, and 36.8% for the USR leader; 0.7% would be undecided, 16.6% would not vote, and 2.4% did not know or did not answer. As many as 54.2% of those who expressed their preference for a candidate would vote for Ciolacu, and 45.8% for Lasconi.
The poll also shows that, in a hypothetical Mircea Geoana vs. and Elena Lasconi runoff, Geoana would get 46.9% and the USR leader 29.2%; 1.6% would be undecided, 19.4% would not vote, and 2.9% did not know or did not answer. Among the respondents who chose a candidate, 61.7% would vote for Geoana, and 38.3% for Lasconi.
The opinion poll was conducted by INSCOP Research, commissioned by the Institute for Freedom and Democracy, between September 11 and 16. The data were collected using the CATI method (telephone interviews) from 1,102 respondents representative of the significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalised population of Romania, aged 18 years and over. It carries an error marging of +/-3% and a at a confidence level of 95%.
AGERPRES
