The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP) has revised its estimates for average annual inflation in 2026 upward to 7.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the fall forecast, as a result of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East, according to the spring edition of the 2026–2029 macroeconomic forecast.
The consumer price index for the end of the year was also revised upward by 1.7 percentage points, to 5.3%.
‘Inflation estimates for the current year have been revised upward by 1.7 percentage points for the end of the year and by 1.4% as an annual average, as a result of the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East. The impact was initially felt in the fuel category, with second-round effects expected to gradually spread to the prices of other categories of goods and services, particularly transportation,” states the Note accompanying the document.
According to the cited source, the disinflationary trajectory, which was interrupted in March, is expected to resume in the third quarter, as the statistical effects of the increase in electricity tariffs are phased out and the new VAT and excise tax rates are implemented.
‘In the current scenario, the exchange rate forecast has also been revised, taking into account the significant increases in May. The downward trend in inflation is expected to continue over the forecast horizon, but this year’s increases will also be reflected in next year’s annual average. However, the risk remains of additional pressure on consumer price growth for 2027, stemming from the re-liberalization of natural gas prices and the removal of the cap on markups for basic food products. “These shocks could slow the disinflationary process and dampen household consumption,” say CNSP experts.
At the same time, adjustments were also made to industrial product prices and construction costs, following developments in the first months of this year and under pressure from energy and raw material prices.
‘These increases, along with rising inflation, have led to an upward revision of the GDP deflator,’ the document notes.
According to the cited source, inflationary pressures intensified significantly at the beginning of 2026. After averaging 9.6% in the first quarter, the upward trajectory of prices exceeded the 10% threshold in April, reaching an annual increase of 10.7%, amid the cumulative effect of price hikes over the past 12 months, which include the liberalization of the electricity market, increases in VAT rates and excise taxes, as well as rising fuel prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In terms of composition, annual inflation (April 2026/April 2025) was driven by price increases for services (+13.0%) and non-food goods (+12.0%), while food prices showed a more moderate (+7.4%) but still high rate of increase.
The most significant annual increases were recorded for electricity (+54.2%), rent (+43.8%), and fuels, particularly diesel (+32.7%) and gasoline (+22.4%), reflecting the direct impact of energy costs and fiscal measures on price dynamics.
In the food segment, the largest price increases were recorded for coffee (+21.8%), eggs (+14.8%), beef (+12.2%), fresh fruit (+11.8%), and cow’s milk (+11.0%), while other staple goods continued to see more moderate increases.
For 2027, the CNSP estimates an average annual inflation rate of 3.8% and 3% by year-end. In 2028, the average annual inflation rate will fall to 3%, and in 2029 to 2.8%.
The National Bank of Romania anticipates that the annual inflation rate will stand at 5.5% at the end of this year, at 2.9% at the end of 2027, and at 2.7% in March 2028, according to the Quarterly Inflation Report, May 2026 edition.
Source: AGERPRES
