The Macroeconomic Confidence Index produced by the CFA Romania Society increased by 5.4 points in January 2023 to 43.3 points, and the expectations for the exchange rate reveal a depreciation of the local currency, the leu (RON), against the euro to over RON 5 to the euro, and an inflation rate of 9.18% in the next 12 months, according to Agerpres.

„Amidst positive news regarding falling methane gas prices that led to reducing inflation rates above market expectations and an upward revision of economic growth projections both in developed economies and in emerging countries, confidence indexes have recorded overall increases. Thus, the Confidence Indicator developed by CFA Society Romania continued its growth in January, with both of its components posting an increase of over 5 points,” says CFA Romania Deputy Chairman Adrian Codirlasu.

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index reached 43.3 points on a 6.3 point increase in the current conditions component and a 5-point increase in the anticipation component.

Also, the anticipated inflation rate for a 12-month horizon was reduced to single digits, to an average of 9.18%.

Regarding the euro/leu exchange rate, 80% of the participants in the CFA Romania survey expect a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the six-month horizon fell below RON 5 to the euro (RON 4.9759 to the euro), while for 12 months, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is RON 5.0215 to the euro.

CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011 as an indicator designed to quantify expectations of financial analysts on economic activity in Romania for a one-year time horizon.

Participants are members of CFA Society Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exams.

The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding: current conditions of business and the labour market; expectations from business, the labour market, personal income and personal wealth at the economy level.

In addition to the necessary questions to calculate the Macroeconomic Confidence Index, the survey also evaluates one-year projections regarding inflation rate, interest rates, EUR / RON exchange rate, the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BET) trading index, global macroeconomic conditions and oil prices.

CFA Romania is an association of investment professionals in Romania, mostly chartered financial analysts (CFA), a qualification administered by the CFA Institute of the US.

Agerpres