A deceleration of economic growth to 2.8% is anticipated for 2023, by 0.9 percentage points below the level of the summer forecast (+3.7%), should the unfavorable effects of the current geopolitical context continue and become more visible at the European level, informs the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP), according to Agerpres.

After a slowdown in activity in the first two quarters, it will rebound under the positive influence of constructions (+5.9%) and services (+3.0%), under the conditions of opportunity related to the exploitation of national resources and inflows of European funds.

The activity in the industrial sector will continue to be influenced by the high level of energy product prices and the weakening of the industry in Germany – Romania’s main trading partner. Under these conditions, a modest increase in gross value added of only 0.4% was predicted, below the level of the scenario in the summer forecast (+2.3%). For agriculture, after the sharp contraction of the previous year, a 9.8% increase in the gross added value is anticipated, under normal climatic conditions.

On the demand side, a moderate increase of 2.7% will be expected for private consumption (by 0.9 percentage points below the estimate of the summer 2022 forecast), the purchasing power of the population being at a lower level than previously forecast (1.7% versus 2.2%). Taking into account the fact that the increase in financing costs and of costs in energy and raw materials, as well as the amplification of investors’ uncertainties inhibit new investments, a dynamic of 6.2% was estimated for the gross formation of fixed capital (by 1 percentage point less than in the summer 2022 forecast).

Net export will contribute slightly negatively to economic growth (-0.8 percentage points), in the event of a higher advance of imports of goods and services (+5.4%) compared to exports (+4.5%).

In the medium term, the annual rate of the gross domestic product was estimated at 4.8% for the period 2024 – 2026, being supported by a significant contribution of the construction sector (with an average annual increase of 9%), the focus being on the attraction and use, as efficiently as possible, of funds from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR).

As regards the services and the industry (with average annual rates of over 4.5%), it is being considered the development of those activities with an added innovative value.

On the demand side, gross fixed capital formation will represent the main engine of economic growth, with an average annual rate of 8.2%, materializing in an investment rate of around 29% at the end of the forecast interval, while private consumption is expected to evolve to an average dynamic lower than that of the gross domestic product. Net export will maintain its negative contribution over the entire forecast interval, however, registering a slight tendency of gradual decrease.

Agerpres